The Middle East: reloading
The USA is going to occupy a leading position in the Middle East region. It has been lost during the 8-years rule of Barack Obama. The Donald Trump’s election victory has changed the balance of power in the world.
The old elite in the USA focused on the close cooperation with Europe and its business interests were closely connected with the interests of the UN. The USA has lost out its leading position in the Middle East region to Russia and the UN. The old White House administration was not able to address the problem in Syria and decided to limit by passive regulation of the situation though international organizations.
Recently the European companies crowd out American companies from Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar using the passive position of Barack Obama. Barack Obama emphasized political moments and ideology and ignored the economic interests of the USA in this rich region. Russia and Europe used the situation.
The White House proposed a new plan. According to the plan, the USA, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, Qatar and Egypt should create a defensive Alliance that implies the common conception of regional security. After the coordination of its positions, these states should sign the Treaty that indicates that an attack on one of these states is equal to an attack on all of these states. The USA and Israel will provides the defensive Alliance with state of the art technologies and weaponry. Practically, it is a good commercial deal for all states of the new emerging Alliance. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar get guarantees of security and will be able to withstand potential threats, in particular from the side of Iran.
The new defensive Alliance will become a NATO analog in the Middle East. The rules of NATO do not allow taking in the military union Arabian states for a large number of reasons. Meanwhile, the Middle East is an extensive market of weaponry. Arms sales to the states of region bring huge profits, but the USA needs guarantees that weaponry will not fell in hands of terrorists. With this aim the military union is created, participants of which is prohibited to resell weaponry and pass it to a third force.
The last decade was difficult for the states of the region. The Arab Spring has weakened Egypt. The Hosni Mubarak’s arrest, the brothers Muslims’ coming to power got the country into a mess. The stable state that was a touristic center turned into a zone of conflict that are mired in terror. Coming to power of military forces stabilized the situation in some point, but terror in the country was not bet. The Egypt authorities do not control the situation in Sinai, whereas there are troops of Egyptian militaries. The Peninsula is under control of different terrorist groups, including ISIS. These groups is constantly joining one or another extremist organization depends on that by whom they are financed.
Saudi Arabia is on the edge of the collapse. The threat from the side of Pro-Iranian groups forces the Saudi leaders to seek for new allies. Moreover, Saudi Arabia is going to save its leadership in the Islam world.
The Civil Strife in Yemen enhances an already complex situation in Saudi Arabia
The UAE tries to find new ways for economic growth in the conditions is falling oil prices. People in the Emirates understand that the country can fall into an economic crisis betting only oil. The state makes a bet on developing of industry, technology and tourism. The USA and Israel provide to Emirates new technologies and investments. Non-official cooperation of Israel and the UAE in the technology field has already begun several years ago, and the new Alliance transfers these contact into an official channel.
Jordan was considered to be the most stable state in the region, but recently terrorist groups attacked it. This country has a long experience of cooperation with Israel, and participation in the Alliance with the USA in it gives new guarantees of security and maintenance of the country integrity.
Qatar has traditional contacts with the USA and it depends on American military assistance in the sphere of security. That is why participation of Qatar in the new Alliance is justified. Besides, Qatar has an effect on groups in Gaza, including Hamas, and will be a part of the new Alliance.
The plan of creation of such Middle East NATO originated in the state Department in the times of Obama. However, the administration of the former President adhered to the principle of participation in this Alliance of Palestine against what was Israel. Israel claimed that resolving of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict could not be tied to the new Alliance. The Administration of Obama thought that it was impossible to build conditions for regional security without creation of a Palestinian State. A new President of the USA – Trump pragmatically addressed the problem and excluded the issue of the Palestinian-Israeli regulation from agenda that allowed drawing together positions of all its participants. In this regard, Arabian countries softened their positions in relation to Israel and creation of the Palestinian State. Saudi Arabia proposed to accommodate Palestinian refugees, and Qatar and the UAE agreed to finance building of new cities for Palestinians without obligatory condition of creation the Palestinian state. Moreover, an airport and a seaport will be built in Gaza.
So that, the new Alliance will mark a monopoly of the USA on selling of weaponry and oil business in the region. In addition, Israel will leave regional isolation.
The new Treaty bothers Europe, Russia, Iran, Turkey that can lost their positions in the Arab world. The critics of Trump in Europe is growing up. European leaders understand that they stops to be one and the only ally of the USA. Iran also is bothered by this situation and the visit of Iran’s leaders to Qatar and Saudi Arabia witnesses for that. The threat of the USA to resume sanctions against Iran is a response of the USA. Protests in Europe is a response of Europe.
The author: Pikulina Marina